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PV module and upstream industry chain real-time price quotes 27 September - 3 October 2021

Posted on 2021-10-08 05:55:48 By Maysun Solar

Solar grade silicon price trends


The overall price of solar grade silicon has soared this week as a result of China's carbon emission regulations and the implementation of the double restriction policy (electricity and production restrictions). The mainstream offer of solar grade monocrystalline silicon on the market remained at around 255-260RMB/KG (36Usd/KG), an increase of around 25%, while the offer of polycrystalline silicon was around 130-135RMB/KG (18.5Usd/KG), an increase of around 24.6%. Bulk order prices for second and third tier solar grade monocrystalline silicon material increased slightly to around 270RMB/KG (37.25Usd/KG), an increase of around 25.5%. Because it is the Chinese National Day holiday, most first-tier solar grade silicon companies have stopped quoting long-agreed orders to take orders.

 
Solar grade silicon production enterprises, because of China's strict policy of restricting the use of electricity, the use of electricity large solar grade silicon enterprises production was greatly affected, will further intensify the contradiction between supply and demand, operation and shipment, China's main sixteen solar grade silicon enterprises are expected to affect production 40-50%, a number of primary polysilicon enterprises to limit the implementation of power policy shutdown debugging overhaul equipment. Recently China's many places to strengthen the impact of power restrictions production restrictions, is expected to 2021 before the end of no signs of relaxation, the direction of the late policy can not be predicted, the short-term photovoltaic crystal silicon material market supply shortage situation for the time being no signs of relief, downstream photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises basically stop purchasing hold wait-and-see state, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Ningxia Qinghai, etc. as the main source of solar grade silicon material, the subsequent impact of the photovoltaic industry needs to continue to observe. Overall, because of the intensification of the power restriction policy, solar grade silicon enterprises in October November December China's silicon production far from the demand for production, the gap is huge. Solar grade silicon material in the later period in the case of no change in the power restriction policy, solar grade silicon prices will be fiercely turbulent, the late photovoltaic panel prices to produce a great push up.

Photovoltaic silicon wafer price trend


Several major PV wafer producers have suspended shipments and offers this week because of the rise in silicon material in the PV wafer market. Notice China's National Day holiday (October 8 official work), will increase prices, the magnitude of the increase needs to be observed, with the low price of the early inventory resources gradually reduced, October PV solar wafer prices will be further pushed up, PV monocrystalline wafer G1 158.75mm, PV monocrystalline wafer M6 166mm, PV monocrystalline wafer M10 182mm, PV monocrystalline wafer G12 210mm PV wafers because of the National Day holiday, several major PV wafer manufacturers in October the latest offer is not out, the end of September individual PV wafer manufacturers wafer offer generally rose about 10%, most companies are after the holiday October 8 after the announcement of the specific offer, PV solar wafer prices are expected to be a minimum of more than 10%,. Photovoltaic polysilicon wafers, affected by the soaring prices of solar grade silicon, market transactions are at a standstill, downstream polycrystalline cell production enterprises wait and see state. 


Affected by the government's power restriction policy, most PV silicon wafer enterprises' start-up situation is reduced, with capacity utilization reaching 60-70%. Near the end of the month, photovoltaic wafer enterprises will soon sign after-market orders, due to the upstream solar grade silicon prices supply incremental shortage, the impact of some enterprises production power restrictions, production costs are expected to rise, photovoltaic wafer procurement shrinkage, after-market price quotes continue to rise, photovoltaic wafer price quotes the main factors by solar grade silicon materials and China's power restriction policy, photovoltaic wafer enterprises cost pressure increased sharply, photovoltaic Silicon wafer prices will continue to rise.

Solar cell price trend


This week's solar cell by the upstream solar grade silicon price increases and power restrictions on production, pressure multiplied, production capacity start rate in 50-60%, the market offer confusion. The biggest factor affecting solar cell prices recently is. the end of September solar grade silicon material soared, causing leading PV silicon wafer enterprises to stop quoting Individual quotes of PV silicon wafer prices rose by about 10%, leading to rising solar cell costs, profit margins were squeezed, in a loss-making state. As solar cell production enterprises have huge shutdown costs, once the shutdown and then start there will be a waste of materials and a long time to debug in order to produce normal, so the impact of power restrictions on solar cell enterprises more serious, solar cell enterprises are not easy to stop production, once the shutdown will not be easy to start again. Therefore, the game with the PV silicon end is relatively weak. Downstream photovoltaic solar module production enterprises, because of power restrictions and EVA aluminum frame prices soared, orders shrink seriously, solar cell procurement will be low. But due to the solar grade silicon material price increases caused by the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, and specific power restriction policy to stop 3 days a week to start 4 days of the impact of the low start-up rate, the follow-up solar cell supply tension prices rise further. Part of the solar cell enterprises suspend quotes and shipments, specific price information waiting for the National Day after the introduction of information. Expected in October will solar cells will rise by about 5-12%.  


The current price of each size solar cell product at the end of September M6 166mm solar cell price at 1.14RMB/W (0.18Usd/w), large size products driven by rising costs and downstream demand, M10 182mm, G12 210mm solar cell prices were 1.10RMB/W (0.161Usd/w) 1.09RMB /At the beginning of October, several leading solar cell manufacturing enterprises shut down and reduced production due to power restrictions, which will exacerbate the tight supply of solar cells, and prices are expected to rise strongly, downstream PV module manufacturers because of the rise in solar cells and PV module auxiliary material costs soaring constraints, October scheduling plan or do not meet expectations, the start-up rate fell, solar cells Price adjustment needs to be decided by the downstream PV module enterprises orders, solar cell prices will rise further in October.

Photovoltaic module price trend

 

PV module prices basically collapsed this week, a line of PV module enterprises at the end of September offer, M10 182mm PV cell module 400 watts - 550 watts PV module factory offer 1.95Rmb / W (0.275Usd / W), G12 210mm solar cell module 400 watts - 520 watts factory price, 1.93Rmb / W (0.273Usd / W ), 2.0Rmb/W (0.28Usd/W) for bifacial power PV modules. PV solar module packaging with EVA aluminum frame, glass, junction box, silicone prices rose, solar cell link prices rose, in addition to module enterprises basically received a notice of power restrictions can only stop work three days a week production for four days, PV module production enterprises in a difficult position. The second and third tier PV module companies are in a wait-and-see situation, with the start-up rate at around 50%. Downstream PV EPC installers are on the sidelines and have a low willingness to purchase PV modules at increased prices. PV power plant projects are under great cost pressure and PV module manufacturers are currently on the verge of losing money. PV module production costs under the government's power restriction policy High costs Insufficient start-ups, with PV module factory output reduced, PV module supply is tight and solar panel prices are expected to continue to rise in October-November.

Solar panel price trend forecast


The photovoltaic industry is a dominant industry in China, with silicon silicon wafers cell wafers The share of each product in the assembly is above 70%, considering that PV module enterprises in Southeast Asia are also invested in and controlled by Chinese companies, with PV modules accounting for more than 90% of the total. China accounts for more than 50% of the world's PV power plant installations, so the supply and demand for PV modules in China determines prices and installations in other regions.


This time, China's policy of limiting electricity and production, the PV industry chain generally lower production supply shortage, solar-grade silicon, PV wafers, solar cells continue to rise, and raw materials EVA film aluminum frame shortage and soaring prices, PV module enterprises and prices continue to be under pressure, PV module enterprises in a difficult situation, low start-up rate, more intensified around the world product shortage. Do not rule out the PV industry chain into a period of great turmoil and serious impact on the development of China's photovoltaic industry, expect the Chinese government will make policy adjustments to avoid damage to the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, favorable to China's carbon emission reduction targets, but also detrimental to the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets around the world.


The price of PV modules is expected to be sharply volatile in October-November, with a sustained upward trend prevailing until 2021.